When Will Electric Trucks Finally Take Off in the US?
In a number of recent calls with my contacts, there is quite a bit of negativity still on electric trucks in North America, but rather like investing in the stock market during a downturn, this may be a good time to focus on electric trucks there, or at least be very ready to quickly ramp up when the demand is there.
Surely the US won't fall 4 or 5 years behind Europe. Surely it can't ignore the continuing price reductions and innovation in lithium batteries. The ever-improving potential for savings by going electric. The truck sector is arguably the biggest current opportunity of all for money and carbon savings in transport.
When the payback period gets shorter, and the savings get better, common sense and maths will likely eventually wear down all the resistance to change and lack of government support.
Whether the current weak demand ramps up next year or in 2028, or in 2030, and whether it depends on the results of elections in 2028, are debatable questions that I wouldn't want to stake a clear position on right now (having not researched it this year). However, recent conversations with industry insiders seem to almost rule out a sudden rebound in 2026 or at the start of 2027. On the other hand by 2030:
The US will have fallen so far behind Europe and China that it will be possible, if necessary, to catch up using vehicles, experiences and ideas imported from those regions. Superior BEV total cost of ownership will be well established globally.
The Republicans may not control Congress or the Presidency as they currently do, and if so, by 2030 any new administration will have had time to introduce measures.
Given the strong case by 2030, Democratic-controlled cities may introduce policies at a city level, regardless of who is in the White House.
Battery prices and innovation will have advanced to the point where the case becomes more attractive than it is today.
Given the projected declines in pricing, 2030 is likely about when payback periods after investing in electric trucks will start to make more and more sense in an increasing number of cases.
It therefore seems reasonable, for now, to project slow growth in 2027 (although as a % it might be high given how low the numbers currently are, but likely small actual sales numbers compared to Europe and China) and faster growth around 2029-2030.
This prediction may not depend on the political situation. The Republicans may stay in control or the Democrats may decide to focus on other areas even if they win. It is simply that the economics of it by around 2030 surely have to start making more sense.
Long-haul electric trucking may not be as fast, but for electric trucks operating out of urban areas and doing 100-200 miles a day the economics of electric will increasingly become harder to ignore.